In Machine Learning, naive Bayes classifiers are a family of simple "probabilistic classifiers" based on applying Bayes' theorem with strong (naïve) independence assumptions between the features. Follow along and refresh your knowledge about Bayesian Statistics, Central Limit Theorem, and Naive Bayes Classifier to stay prepared for your next Machine Learning and Data Analyst Interview.
A happening given that B has occurred can be found.P(Temperature|Rain).Statistical significance is a term used by researchers to state that it is unlikely their observations could have occurred under the null hypothesis of a statistical test. Significance is usually denoted by a p-value, or probability value.
Statistical significance is arbitrary – it depends on the threshold, or alpha value, chosen by the researcher. The most common threshold is p < 0.05, which means that the data is likely to occur less than 5% of the time under the null hypothesis.
When the p-value falls below the chosen alpha value, then we say the result of the test is statistically significant.
Descriptive statistics, as its name suggests, focus on describing the characteristics or features of a dataset. Here we look for measures of distribution, central tendency and variability in order to draw conclusions based on known data.
Inferential statistics focus on making generalizations about a larger population based on a representative sample of that population, It also allows us to make predictions so its results are usually in the form of a probability. Here, we perform hypothesis testing, compute confidence intervals, make regression and correlation analyses, in order to draw conclusions that go beyond the available data.
We call it naive because its assumptions (it assumes that all of the features in the dataset are equally important and independent) are really optimistic and rarely true in most real-world applications:
If the availability of data is a constraint, i.e. if the training data is smaller or if the dataset has a fewer number of observations and a higher number of features, we can choose algorithms with high bias/low variance like Naïve Bayes and Linear SVM.
If the training data is sufficiently large and the number of observations is higher as compared to the number of features, one can go for low bias/high variance algorithms like K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision trees, Random forests, and kernel SVM.
Let's say:
Can you find the probability of dangerous Fire when there is Smoke?
We can then discover the probability of dangerous Fire when there is Smoke using the Bayes' Theorem:
P(Fire | Smoke) = P(Fire) * P(Smoke | Fire) / P(Smoke)
= 0.01 * 0.9 / 0.1
= 0.09 (9%)So probability of dangerous fire when there is a smoke is 9%.
Naive Bayes methods work by applying Bayes’ theorem with the “naive” assumption of conditional independence between every pair of features given the value of the class variable.
The Bayes’ theorem states that for a given class variable and dependent feature vector . The conditional probability of the class label , given the observation is:
We can simplify the above expression using the naive assumption that features of measurement are independent of each other, i.e.
Which lead to:
Since, is constant given the input, we use Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation to estimate and , which results in:
This calculation can be performed for each of the class labels, and the label with the largest probability can be selected as the classification for the given instance.
The different Naive Bayes classifiers differ mainly by the assumptions they make regarding the distribution of .
We can use any kind of predictor in a Naive Bayes classifier. All we need is the conditional probability of a feature given the class, i.e., P(F | Class).
P(F | Class) using a distribution such as multinomial or Bernoulli. P(F | Class) using a distribution such as Normal or Gaussian.Since Naive Bayes assumes the conditional independence of the features, it can use different types of features together. We can calculate each feature’s conditional probability and multiply them to get the final prediction.
Often, we know how frequently some particular evidence is observed, given a known outcome. We have to use this known fact to compute the reverse, to compute the chance of that outcome happening, given the evidence. Conceptually, this is a way to go from P(Evidence | Known Outcome) to P(Outcome | Known Evidence). Bayes' theorem is a relatively simple, but fundamental result of probability theory that allows for the calculation of certain conditional probabilities. Conditional probabilities are just those probabilities that reflect the influence of one event on the probability of another.
The formula is:
Which tells us:
When we know:
As an example let us say P(Fire) means how often there is fire, and P(Smoke) means how often we see smoke, then
So the formula kind of tells us "forwards" P(Fire | Smoke) when we know "backwards" P(Smoke | Fire)
Some disadvantages of using Naive Bayes Algorithm are:
Some advantages of using Naive Bayes algorithm are:
In probability theory, the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) states that the distribution of a sample variable approximates a normal distribution (i.e., a “bell curve”) as the sample size becomes larger, assuming that all samples are identical in size, and regardless of the population's actual distribution shape.
Put another way, CLT is a statistical premise that, given a sufficiently large sample size from a population with a finite level of variance, the mean of all sampled variables from the same population will be approximately equal to the mean of the whole population.
Mathematically, the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a statement about the cumulative distribution function of the random variable
where the are independent identically distributed random variables with mean and standard deviation . The CLT asserts that for each , ,
as .
A Generative Model explicitly models the actual distribution of each class. It learns the joint probability distribution p(x,y) = P(y) * P(x|y), where both P(y) and P(x|y) can be estimated from the dataset by computing class frequencies. Some examples of generative models are:
A Discriminative Model models the decision boundary between the classes by learning the conditional probability distribution P(y|x) from the dataset. Some examples of such kinds of classifiers are:
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